Forex News: UBS Reports Improved Swiss Consumer Demand

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Weekly fundamental forecast for the dollar

The fear of coronavirus makes US stock market bulls retreat, which results in the US dollar’s consolidation. The number of new cases hits a record high in the USA. The US also reported record high hospitalization rates since 19 August, while France recorded the highest daily death toll since April. Emmanuel Macron is rumored to introduce another lockdown. That dropped the EURUSD quotes below the bottom of figure 18. The fall might have been deeper if not for expectations of the Democrats’ victory on 3 November.
According to 75% of 59 Reuters experts, a blue wave will be the best option for the US economy. It will help the fiscal stimulus package worth $1.8 trillion pass easily through Congress. Experts forecast that the US GDP will draw down 4% in 2020 and expand 3.7% and 2.9% in 2021-2022, respectively.

Reuters survey: What will support the US economy?

Source: Reuters.
A blue wave and post-election reduction in political uncertainty suggest that volatility may fall. That’s good news for S&P 500 and bad news for the greenback. The world’s largest financial manager BlackRock, which manages assets worth $7.3 trillion, thinks that the USD will be moderately weak for 1-3 years. The giant joints USD bulls, such as Goldman Sachs and UBS. Its position explains why hedge funds are selling out dollars in the forward market.

USD index and speculative positions in USD


Source: Bloomberg.
Uncertainty feeds the dollar. The markets seem to know already the presidential election’s results. The election factor excluded, the second wave may drop EURUSD quotes significantly. We may face the global economy’s double recession and another collapse of the S&P 500 and the greenback’s hike like it was in March. All the previous achievements will be canceled. Few are those who will remember the housing prices’ growth in the USA and the fifth consecutive month of increase in US durable goods orders.

US durable goods orders


Source: Bloomberg.
At first sight, the second pandemic wave must push the ECB to active actions as early as at the 29 October meeting. However, QE expansion won’t solve the COVID-19 issue. European banks stop crediting, fearing bad debt growth. So, Christine Lagarde’s main task is to calm down financial markets. A hint about an additional stimulus in December may help with that task.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

Thus, the pandemic returned to Forex’s forefront and consolidated the USD. However, I think it’s still possible to exploit the factor of Joe Biden’s victory in the short term. The EURUSD’s retracement from support at 1.1745 or return to 1.1815 and higher may be a signal to open long positions for impatient and adventurous traders.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-rocks-on-the-waves-analysis-as-of-28102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
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Weekly Forex & Crypto Analysis by PrimeXBT

Weekly Forex & Crypto Analysis by PrimeXBT
The week has started and was led by the only title and header around all economic news which is “US-China trade wars”.
US-China trade wars in general had its effect on all markets, including cryptocurrency. The United States wants to tighten cryptocurrency use and claimed that it’s been used by smugglers and drug-dealers and pointed out that most of the transactions are made in China.
This week BTC tried to break $10500 on Monday, August 26th and was rejected, the price then was floating between $10400-10300 and continued the correction down to $10027. Uncertainty in the BTC has ended when the price hit $10400 again and showed a massive drop to $9366. We will point out several reasons of this week’s drop. The drop could be a result of an update in the US when rumors on crypto-currency taxation became real. Several notes sent by the IRS to crypto-currency holders pushed some investors to get rid of the BTC and led to a major sell.
The Wright and Kleiman case brings another reason to worry about. If Kleiman family surely inherited billions of $ worth of Bitcoin, then they should declare IRS the quantity and pay state taxes. Most probably, when these BTC’s received if they exist, the Kleiman family will sell them, which will result another drop-down of BTC.
CME Exchange’s futures contracts for Bitcoin is expiring today, though the Exchange showed a record-high $515M daily trading volume in May, futures expiry date gave extra-strength to sellers.
The price by the time published is traded at $9608 per BTC, from the technical point of view the price still has to find greater grounds for another massive jump.
https://preview.redd.it/8f0tliwapnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=64a5214d8a583bd7b7f3dcdd5f3de63290697050
Though we can see that a double-bottom pattern in 1-hour chart and most likely BTC will test $9750
https://preview.redd.it/vib20xqcpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=06b1a9de59c8c76ecc447b5e2b0a8d506a79c12b
CME Exchange will continue to offer Bitcoin futures which is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency and announcement of the release of ICE-backed Bakkt Bitcoin futures in September 23 could be that pump to get the price above $10K.

Now let’s move to Forex market

The pair to watch this week and the next week is EURUSD.
Economy of Germany which EU's locomotive and other countries are cars, has showed a slight 0.1% decrease in the second quarter of 2019 related to the previous quarter. We can never deny the fact that the EU union with all its economy and power of its currency is completely dependent to the economic well-being of Germany. If the third quarter of this year doesn't show mercy to Germany's economy or Germany doesn't change policies to not only stabilize but improve the economy, the EU should prepare well for recession.
Not only economic state of Germany but rumors and news and overall hype over Brexit and Italy's economic crisis are considered to be a sinker of Euro against USD. For Euro to gain power and for EURUSD to show an uptrend again, firstly all rumors and preparations on recession should be reduced to nothing and EU states should do the needful to prevent the new economic crisis.
This week’s economic data from Germany was not positive, IFO Business Climate was below forecasted 95.1 and 94.3 was announced, German GDP was -0.1. These were news which weakened the European currency, although the worst scenario was yet to come. Thursday, August 29 Germany made an announced on the unemployment, and the number was four times higher than on the previous unemployment change, 4K. Since the announcement EURUSD was showing downwards movement and plummeted to 1.0990
If no signs of progress are shown next week, especially if the German Manufacturing PMI numbers don’t show positive, the price will continue downtrend to 1.0950 and find the next support at 1.0850
https://preview.redd.it/cso52ruepnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=21e4bdfed18b0bcce872b8714efa4d5d8fdc8b71
The political tension between EU and UK, US and China last week showed us more-or-less unpredictable movements in US, China, HK, EU, UK stock market indices. Since the “trade-war” begun and US applying higher tariffs on Chinese goods and China taking counter-action the only gainers of these back-to-back pokes were Gold and Silver. Gold showed one more time that it’s the most trusted asset to invest. The price hit $1555 highs this week and is now showing signs of short-term correction being traded at $1526. Major Investment institutions such as UBS and Citigroup look positive on Golds new summit ascents. Mainly UBS has stated that the next week the price could reach $1600.
From the technical point we can see that the price is trying to break the barrier at 1530, and is still unlucky.
https://preview.redd.it/huvtsyugpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ccae0383301cabe7b0b479bde81b72cee5aa81c
This could mean that if the support at $1520 is broken, the correction will continue to $1515 and $1507.
If the downtrend is impulsive the price will reach $1494, where it will find support and another upwards move shall be expected.
https://preview.redd.it/oyzz33oipnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ae2f71cb0fece2770bcff716bd59d39e7a9245d
At the other hand, confirmation of Gold’s uptrend move will be breaking of resistance at $1530 where the price shall face a mile-stone of resistances at 1545-1563-1571.
From the Global prospective we should follow the upcoming Manufacturing PMI’s announcements of Germany and the US, US Non-Farm payrolls and Unemployment rates. Pay a very close attention to announcements of these three states Australia, UK and Canada, as well. Report prepared by analysts from PrimeXBT.
submitted by Esabellaason to PrimeXBT [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Media and PR

Bit redditors are complaining that Amir Taaki is a childish rep of bitcoin and needs someone more corporate, like Erik Voorhees or Trace Mayer however stop complaining on reddit and do your part.
The bit coin needs good PR and good publicity and more importantly positive Media Representation especially in Western Media.
Understand the trends.
Since bitcoin prices have skyrocketed from $30 upwards. Media agencies such as BBC, CNN have stopped reporting factual events in bitcoin such as the bitcoinica and mtgox hacks earlier to taking an editorial stance for or against it. Most outlets and newspapers have not done their research properly which shows how rushed and sensationalised journalism has become.
Tech and Business news have started to output their views also on bitcoin also highlighting inaccurate events and publicizing weaknesses such as Hacks, Bubbles and laughable bearish views. The Tech news outlets have been pretty favourable and business outlets pragmatically harsher.
Its simple.
News Agencies and Newspapers have hierarchies and therefore their editorial output is determined in a meeting even if the journalist is doing an independent piece as it still have to be editorially approved.
So quite simply if Media proprietors, newspaper and magazine editors and journalists and news anchors actually had bitcoins in their wallets, like the tech journalists have, hence why they are favourable to it, they would naturally promote bitcoins similar to how Goldman Sachs promotes the assets or derivatives they are long on. Most here are long on bitcoin so you need to make sure that Media proprietors, editors and journalists have bitcoins. This includes News Agencies, Newspapers and Magazines and Tech and business news outlets also. In addition to politicians and regulators. Find out everyone connected and send them bitcoins to get them connected. Clearly aimed at early adopters since the new guys cant send out bitcoins that they had to pay large amounts for. It may sounds ridiculous to send relatively affluent people in society bitcoins however the long term aim fully justifies this and I hope most of you read this over again if you do not understand this. These people promote their bias and interest directly and indirectly and still can appear neutral and professional. Get these guys to do our Marketing and PR without paying a PR agency millions of dollars. Just send them a few coins.
Remember Wordpress, Reddit, Mega, 9Flats, Expensify,
Of course a legitimate currency has to be used for illegitimate human vices such as Drugs, Sex, porn prostitution and Gambling.
But Food & Drink, Clothing and Shelter need to be purchased with bitcoin for it to fully function.
So contact or even flood them on email or twitter.
BBC, CNN, Reuters, AP, AFP, AlJazeera, CBS, ABC, Fox, NBC, New York Times, USA Today and Gannett, LA times and Tribune, MediaNews Group, Daily News, Sun-Times, Hearst Corp, Washington Post, Associated Newspapers, News International, GMG, TMG and Press Holdings, Bloomberg, FT and Economist, Tech like Verge, Arstechnica, Wired, TC, BGR, GigaOM, VB, Mashable, Media proprietors, CEO, Chairman, CIO, CTO, CFO, Editors, and Journalists, Also your politicians Senators, Reps and MPs, and Regulators like FinCen and others in US/EU. and finance commentators, strategists and economists - since they put out their views regularly to sheep that follow their every word even if they lie.
No point commenting this guy and that girl gave a negative view or that newspaper or blog is biased. Do something.
Go.
Bloomberg correspondent Sara Eisen, Convergex Group Chief market Strategist Nick Colas , Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, Societe Generale Senior Forex Strategist Sebastien Galy, Bob Rice, general managing partner with Tangent Capital Partners LLC, UBS stockbroker Art Cashin, Reuters claim Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs traders visiting mtgox Mastercard are watching, Steve Hanke, http://economics.wustl.edu/people/stephen_williamson, Scott Sumner, Tyler Cowen, George Selgin, Paul Krugman, Benjamin M. Friedman, http://econ.williams.edu/people/knk1, Lawrence H. White, Russ Roberts. Paypal is watching, Media Proprietors will call short now but then... Let their greed enable us.
The greed is unbelievable. http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/05/why-do-vcs-care-about-bitcoin/
submitted by catoeisen to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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Daily Technical Forex Report 15.11.2018 - YouTube

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